On 2 November 2026 the Bank of England series IUDMNPY shows the 10-year par gilt yield at 5.3087% on 28 October 2026, lower than 5.3616% on 15 September 2026.
(adjacent, long horizon). The market resolves on the Bank of England Statistical Interactive Database series IUDMNPY, the daily 10-year nominal par gilt yield, comparing the 28 October 2026 reading with the 15 September 2026 reading as both stand on 2 November 2026; YES if the 28 October reading is lower, and an equal or higher reading resolves NO. Baseline at drafting: the latest published reading is 5.30% for 11 September 2026, and the Guardian reported the 10-year above 5.4% on 14 September; the 15 September reading is fixed when the Bank publishes it, normally within two working days. If the Bank's series is unavailable, the DMO's daily 10-year benchmark close for the same two dates settles it, and failing that Reuters and the Financial Times reports of the two closes.
We looked at planned decisions on the pace of bond sales since 2019 by the Bank of England, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada. We took only decisions made while markets, governments or economists were publicly asking for a slowdown in the weeks before. For each, we checked whether the bank cut the pace, stopped selling some bonds or ended sales at that decision. We also checked whether the 10-year bond yield was lower 90 days later.