Tue, 19 May 2026
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Market29 Aug 2026

Does the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate on 18 September?

BinaryResolves 18 Sep 2026
History33%
Hunch72%
Your forecast
  • Yes
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Resolved
Resolved: YES

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate on 18 September 2026. Eight members voted for the rise and two, Asada Toichiro and Sato Ayano, voted against. The new guideline applies from 24 September.

Resolved 18 Sep 2026
How this resolves

The market resolves on the Statement on Monetary Policy published on boj.or.jp at the close of the 17–18 September 2026 meeting (usually around noon JST on 18 September); resolves YES if it raises the short-term policy interest rate by any amount. If that source has not published in time, Reuters and BBC News reports of the decision settle it.

The pattern behind it

2 of 6
Two of the six runs of yen-buying intervention since the Bank of Japan Act of 1998 were followed by a rate rise at the Bank's next meeting: July 2024, to around 0.25%, and June 2026, to 1%. The Bank held after the April 1998, June 1998 and October 2022 runs, and after the April–May 2024 run it kept rates at 0 to 0.1% and deferred the cut in bond buying to July. Six runs are the full record, so the window and the record are the same.

Japan has bought yen in six runs since 1998, counting buying days a month or less apart as one run. For each run we checked what the Bank of Japan did at its next meeting, using the Bank's own records. It raised rates after the two most recent runs and left them unchanged after the other four.