Does the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate at its 29-30 October 2026 meeting?

BinaryResolves 30 Oct 2026

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Resolved

Resolved: NO

The Bank of Japan's Statement on Monetary Policy of 30 October 2026 kept the overnight call rate at around 1.25 percent, so the rate was not raised.

Resolved 30 Oct 2026

How this resolves

The market resolves on the Statement on Monetary Policy published on boj.or.jp at the close of the 29–30 October 2026 meeting; resolves YES if it raises the short-term policy interest rate by any amount. If that source has not published in time, Reuters and BBC News settle it.

The pattern behind it

2 of 6

Two of the six runs of yen-buying intervention since the Bank of Japan Act of 1998 were followed by a rate rise at the Bank's next meeting: July 2024, to around 0.25%, and June 2026, to 1%. The Bank held after the April 1998, June 1998 and October 2022 runs, and after the April–May 2024 run it kept rates at 0 to 0.1% and deferred the cut in bond buying to July. Six runs are the full record, so the window and the record are the same.

Japan has bought yen in six runs since 1998, counting buying days a month or less apart as one run. For each run we checked what the Bank of Japan did at its next meeting, using the Bank's own records. It raised rates after the two most recent runs and left them unchanged after the other four.

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Does the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate at its 29-30 October 2026 meeting?

The pattern behind it

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