Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market19 May 2026

How many debut novels will make the Booker 2026 longlist?

Multiple choiceResolves 28 Jul 2026
Hunch
0–122%
2–351%
4 or more27%
Your forecast
  • 0–1
  • 2–3
  • 4 or more
Resolved
Resolved: 2–3

Three debut novels made the 13-book longlist: Kenan Orhan's The Renovation, Rebecca Perry's May We Feed the King and Djamel White's All Them Dogs.

Resolved 28 Jul 2026
How this resolves

The debut-count market resolves on the number of first novels as identified in the Booker Prize Foundation's own longlist announcement materials.

The pattern behind it

3 of 7
Three of the last seven Booker longlists (2019–2025) included at least one former winner of the prize. The pattern is split — and the misses came in a consecutive block, so panel temperament matters more than trend.

A new panel of judges chooses the list each year, and each panel must decide whether to let a past winner back in. We looked at the lists since 2019. Some panels welcomed back a famous name. Others filled the whole list with writers who had never won.