Borrowing in the financial year to June 2026 was £57.6 billion, £2.7 billion above the OBR forecast, though the gap narrowed sharply from £7.7 billion at the May print (ONS, Public sector finances, June 2026).
The market resolves on the ONS public sector finances bulletin for June 2026, published on ons.gov.uk on 21 July 2026; YES if the bulletin itself states that cumulative April to June 2026 borrowing is above the OBR's March 2026 forecast. First-print figures govern, before any later revision, and the ONS's own stated comparison is canonical — no independent recomputation against OBR tables is permitted. By 23:59 BST on 21 July 2026. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and Reuters reports of the bulletin settle it.
We looked at every year since 2012 when UK borrowing in the first months of the financial year ran above the official forecast, as it does now by £7.7 billion. We asked one thing: was the gap still there when the ONS published the next month's figures, or did it disappear? We found four such years, and each time the gap lasted. The case notes also show what each chancellor did months later.