Brazil's electoral court (TSE) results file for the 4 October 2026 first round gives Lula 45.16% of the valid vote, behind Flávio Bolsonaro on 47.03%, with both going to a run-off on 25 October; Al Jazeera reported the same split.
Hunch. Lula's 39% and Flavio Bolsonaro's 36% add up to 75%, so a quarter of those asked named someone else or nobody, and Brazil's official percentages leave blank and spoiled ballots out, which lifts both men above their poll numbers on the night.
The 40% market resolves on the same electoral court page on the night of 4 October 2026: YES if Lula's share of valid votes for president in the first round is 40.00% or higher, NO otherwise. If the court's site cannot be reached, the figures as reported by two of BBC News, Reuters and Al Jazeera settle it.
We looked at every Brazilian first round since Bolsa Familia became a national programme in 2003. That gives five elections, from 2006 to 2022. In each, we compared the gap between the top two in the last polls with the gap in the count. In four of the five, the count was closer than the polls.