History. In seven of ten temporary export taxes on raw materials, the government kept the tax going past its end date without a break. Three times it ended.
Hunch. Finance minister Dario Durigan said on 23 October that fuel support will likely stay in 2027 if oil stays very high, and he did not rule out keeping the oil export tax.
The 2027 market resolves on the news pages of Brazil's trade ministry (MDIC) and the Camex pages on gov.br: YES if by 31 December 2026 the Gecex committee or another federal act sets a tax above zero on crude oil exports that is in force on 1 January 2027 without a break. It is NO if no such act comes by 31 December, also if a new tax is set only in 2027, a court ruling does not change the result, and g1, Estadão and Reuters settle it if the official pages cannot be read.
We looked for cases where a government put a temporary tax on exports of a raw material by its own decision, with an end date, and then had to decide whether to keep it. We found ten such end dates from 2021 to 2024, in Brazil, India and Russia. Six of them were in Russia. (g1; Business Standard (PTI); Government of Russia)