History. In five of ten, the tax went on at the same or a higher rate on the main product. Twice it went on at a lower rate, and three times it ended.
Hunch. On 5 November Brazil kept the full 12% rate with oil already below $100 a barrel, but its own plan is to cut the rate step by step once oil gets cheaper.
The 12% market resolves on the same pages: YES if by 31 December an act keeps a tax of 12% or more on crude oil exports in force on 1 January 2027. It is NO if there is no tax on 1 January or the rate is lower, also if a rate that moves with the oil price gives less than 12% that day, and g1, Estadão and Reuters are the backups.
We looked for cases where a government put a temporary tax on exports of a raw material by its own decision, with an end date, and then had to decide whether to keep it. We found ten such end dates from 2021 to 2024, in Brazil, India and Russia. Six of them were in Russia. (g1; Business Standard (PTI); Government of Russia)