History. In seven of ten, the tax was extended for five and a half months or more, or with no end date. No extension was shorter.
Hunch. Since July Brazil has only extended the tax in steps of about 60 days and never longer, so a jump past 1 March would break its own habit.
The 1 March market resolves on the same pages: YES if an act passed by 31 December keeps the tax on crude oil exports in force on 2 March 2027 or later, with or without an end date. It is NO if there is no extension or it ends on 1 March 2027 or earlier, extensions passed after 31 December do not count, and g1, Estadão and Reuters are the backups.
We looked for cases where a government put a temporary tax on exports of a raw material by its own decision, with an end date, and then had to decide whether to keep it. We found ten such end dates from 2021 to 2024, in Brazil, India and Russia. Six of them were in Russia. (g1; Business Standard (PTI); Government of Russia)