Hunch. An appeals court put the tax back on 1 September, citing the risk to the budget, and no court has stopped it since.
The court market resolves on the news pages of Brazil's courts, the federal appeals court in Brasília (TRF-1) and the Supreme Federal Court (STF): YES if by 31 December any Brazilian court, at any level, stops the collection of the tax on crude oil exports for all exporters or for members of the producers' group ABEP, even if the ruling is later reversed. It is NO if no such ruling comes, and g1 and Estadão are the backups.
We looked for cases where a government put a temporary tax on exports of a raw material by its own decision, with an end date, and then had to decide whether to keep it. We found ten such end dates from 2021 to 2024, in Brazil, India and Russia. Six of them were in Russia. (g1; Business Standard (PTI); Government of Russia)