The Superior Electoral Court count for the runoff on 25 October 2026, with 100% of sections counted, shows Lula elected with 51.79% of valid votes against 48.21% for Flavio Bolsonaro, and The Guardian and Al Jazeera report the same result.
Hunch. Flávio finished the first round about two points ahead of Lula, and most polls had expected Lula to lead (Al Jazeera, 5 Oct 2026).
The runoff market resolves on the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) results page on the night of 25 October 2026: YES if Flávio Bolsonaro is elected, NO if Lula is. If there is no runoff between the two, the market is cancelled; Reuters and BBC News settle it if the court's page is unavailable.
We looked for cases where a close final vote between two candidates came while a foreign power that the country depends on openly acted for one side, with official reports, sanctions or words from its leader, and the other side called it meddling. We found five since 1946: in Argentina, Nicaragua, Ukraine, Poland and Colombia. The US was the foreign power four times and Russia once.