The Superior Electoral Court final count for the runoff on 25 October 2026 gives Lula 51.79% and Flavio Bolsonaro 48.21% of valid votes, a gap of 3.58 points, below 8; The Guardian and Al Jazeera report the same shares.
History. 3 of the 4 cases with a known final count ended with a gap under 8 points; Argentina 1946 has no count in the sources used.
Hunch. The two other right-wing candidates took about 4% in the first round, and if most of those votes go to Flávio the gap could pass 8 points (The Guardian, 5 Oct 2026).
The margin market resolves on the TSE final count for 25 October 2026: YES if the winner's share of valid votes is less than 8.00 points above the loser's, NO at 8.00 or more. Reuters and BBC News reports of the final count are the backup.
We looked for cases where a close final vote between two candidates came while a foreign power that the country depends on openly acted for one side, with official reports, sanctions or words from its leader, and the other side called it meddling. We found five since 1946: in Argentina, Nicaragua, Ukraine, Poland and Colombia. The US was the foreign power four times and Russia once.