History. No count from past cases: what happened to the pressure after the vote was not recorded in them. This question comes from the US motive: part of the 50% tariff was linked to Jair Bolsonaro's treatment in the courts.
Hunch. The US added a new 25% tariff in July 2026 rather than lowering the 50% tariff of July 2025 (TIME, 1 Oct 2026).
The tariff market resolves on the Federal Register and USTR on 5 January 2027: YES if between 5 October 2026 and 4 January 2027 the US lowers or removes, even in part, its 50% or 25% extra tariff on Brazilian goods. New exemptions for single products without a lower rate resolve NO; Reuters and BBC News are the backup.
We looked for cases where a close final vote between two candidates came while a foreign power that the country depends on openly acted for one side, with official reports, sanctions or words from its leader, and the other side called it meddling. We found five since 1946: in Argentina, Nicaragua, Ukraine, Poland and Colombia. The US was the foreign power four times and Russia once.