History. 9 of 10 elections where the head of Brazil's Senate or Chamber of Deputies ran again at the start of a new parliament: the head was re-elected.
Hunch. On 2 November Folha reported that right-wing parties will hold most seats in the new Senate, and the largest of them, Marinho's PL, runs against Alcolumbre.
The re-election market resolves YES if the Senate declares Davi Alcolumbre elected head in the vote that opens the 2027 parliament, set for 1 February, as reported by Agência Senado and the Senate's list of its heads on senado.leg.br. Another winner, or Alcolumbre not on the ballot when the vote opens, is NO, no vote by 28 February 2027 voids it, and O Globo, g1 and Folha de S.Paulo decide if the Senate pages do not open.
We looked for cases where the elected head of Brazil's Senate or of the Chamber of Deputies, the lower chamber of Congress, ran for a new term at the first sitting of a new parliament, when members vote in secret. We found ten such elections from 1987 to 2023. Nine times the head won a new term on the day of the vote. The one loss came in the Chamber of Deputies in 2007, in a second round. In the Senate the head won all five times.