Brent never settled at $110 or above between 10 September and 9 October 2026; the highest levels reported were just over $108.5 on 14 September (The Guardian) and above $108 on 16 September (BBC News), and on 8 October it was $105.3. The ICE Futures Europe page could not be read by script.
Resolved 10 Oct 2026
How this resolves
The $110 market resolves on the same ICE Futures Europe settlement series up to and including 9 October 2026, and needs one settlement at $110.00 or above. Reuters and Guardian market reports naming the settlement level are the fallback.
The pattern behind it
5 of 8
Five of the last eight moves back above $100 were reversed inside 30 days: July 2026 (11 days), May 2026 (three days), April 2026 (the same afternoon), March 2026 (the same day) and February 2022 (19 days). Three held: January 2011, which ran to $116 within five weeks on the Libyan uprising, October 2011, which was still near $110 a month later, and 22 April 2026, which stayed above the line for 33 days. The split is not random. The two crossings that held before this year came on supply losses with no diplomatic off-ramp; four of the five reversals came inside a war in which a single ceasefire headline has repeatedly taken $10 to $20 off the price in a session.
Brent has risen back above $100 a barrel eight times since 2011, counting only rises reported by the publications we use. Five of them came this year, during the war with Iran. For each one we checked whether the price fell below $100 again within 30 days.
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