Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market06 Oct 2026

Will the watchdog say BT buying TalkTalk could hurt competition?

BinaryResolves 15 Nov 2026
History38%
Hunch43%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 15 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. 3 of 8: BSkyB / ITV 2007, Lloyds TSB / HBOS 2008, Parker-Hannifin / Meggitt 2022.

Hunch. BT already has about a third of UK broadband customers, and a rival bidder warned on 5 October about less competition in the wholesale market.

How this resolves

The competition market resolves on the CMA report, or a ministerial statement on gov.uk that repeats its finding: YES if the CMA finds a real risk of a substantial loss of competition in at least one market, and NO if it finds none. If neither is public by the end of 15 November the market is void, with BBC News and The Guardian as backup.

The pattern behind it

3 of 8
Three of eight times the minister approved the deal without a longer inquiry within 27 days of the watchdog's report. Two more were approved this way after 123 and 174 days of talks.

We looked for cases where a UK minister took a merger decision away from the competition watchdog on public interest grounds, and the watchdog named a market where both companies worked. We found eight since 2007 among 21 such interventions on gov.uk. Each was a different deal, and two of them involved Sky.