Turnout in the 25 October 2026 first round was about 22% of registered voters, far below half, as Al Jazeera (22.2% citing Radio Bulgaria) and The Independent (22% with almost all ballots counted) reported; the election commission's results site blocks both scripts and the browser with a Cloudflare check on 30 October, so its own figure could not be read and two whitelist outlets settle it.
History. 4 of 7. Turnout in the first round was above half in 1992, 1996, 2011 and 2016, and below half in 2001, 2006 and 2021.
Hunch.
The turnout market resolves on the Commission's official turnout for the first round, counting voters in the country and abroad against everyone on the voter lists: YES if it is above 50%. If the site cannot be reached, BBC News, Reuters and Al Jazeera reports of the official figure settle it.
We looked for cases where Bulgaria chose its president by direct vote under the same rule. There are seven, from 1992 to 2021. In each we checked how many voters took part and what share of the votes the leader won. No election ended on the first day. Six times nobody had half the votes. In 2006 the leader had 64%, but too few people voted. The first-round leader won the second round every time.