By 29 November, does the government publish a date for the first Multi Role Support Ship to enter service?
BinaryResolves 29 Nov 2026
Hunch25%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolves 29 Nov 2026
Why these numbers
Hunch. Editorial scoring note: The current Bulwark event is context, not a completed historical observation. The three historical cases remain 3/3, below the six-case threshold for showing History.
How this resolves
Resolves on pages published on gov.uk by the Ministry of Defence, including the Defence Investment Plan. YES if a gov.uk page states a year or date on which the first Multi Role Support Ship is expected to enter Royal Navy service, by 23:59 GMT on 29 November 2026. Delivery estimates given by ministers in Parliament count only if reproduced on gov.uk. If that source has not published in time, Hansard and BBC News settle it.
The pattern behind it
Too few cases
Three of the last three comparable cases since 2010 went the same way, and three is the full record: carrier strike returned after roughly a decade, maritime patrol after most of one, and the helicopter carrier was never directly replaced. The Multi Role Support Ship programme is better funded and further advanced at this stage than any of them, with a partner navy and a confirmed budget. What it lacks is the thing the three precedents all lacked as well: a date. Three cases sit below the six Hunch needs before it shows History.
Editorial scoring note: The current Bulwark event is context, not a completed historical observation. The three historical cases remain 3/3, below the six-case threshold for showing History.
We looked for every time since 2010 that the Ministry of Defence retired, cancelled or sold a type of Royal Navy ship or aircraft before the one replacing it was built. We asked one question: within 18 months, was the replacement working, or on track for a date announced in advance? We found three cases, and each left a gap of years.
Some cookies are essential for Hunch to work properly. Others are optional—you decide whether to allow them. We don’t sell your personal data. Learn more and change your choices at any time in Cookie settings.