Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market29 Aug 2026

Does the Ministry of Defence name the UK yard that will build the Multi Role Support Ships by 29 November?

BinaryResolves 29 Nov 2026
Hunch34%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 29 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. Editorial scoring note: The current Bulwark event is context, not a completed historical observation. The three historical cases remain 3/3, below the six-case threshold for showing History.

How this resolves

Resolves on Ministry of Defence announcements on gov.uk. YES if an announcement names the UK yard or yards that will build the Multi Role Support Ships, by 23:59 GMT on 29 November 2026. Statements that the ships will be built in Britain, without naming a yard, do not count. If that source has not published in time, Hansard and BBC News settle it.

The pattern behind it

Too few cases
Three of the last three comparable cases since 2010 went the same way, and three is the full record: carrier strike returned after roughly a decade, maritime patrol after most of one, and the helicopter carrier was never directly replaced. The Multi Role Support Ship programme is better funded and further advanced at this stage than any of them, with a partner navy and a confirmed budget. What it lacks is the thing the three precedents all lacked as well: a date. Three cases sit below the six Hunch needs before it shows History. Editorial scoring note: The current Bulwark event is context, not a completed historical observation. The three historical cases remain 3/3, below the six-case threshold for showing History.

We looked for every time since 2010 that the Ministry of Defence retired, cancelled or sold a type of Royal Navy ship or aircraft before the one replacing it was built. We asked one question: within 18 months, was the replacement working, or on track for a date announced in advance? We found three cases, and each left a gap of years.