Burnham was acclaimed Labour leader unopposed on 17 July and became Prime Minister on 20 July 2026, per gov.uk; he was leader on 1 August.
Resolved 1 Aug 2026
How this resolves
The leader-on-1-August market resolves on the Labour Party's official record of its leader on that date; if a contested ballot is still running, it resolves to Keir Starmer as continuing caretaker leader.
The pattern behind it
3 of 5
Three of the last five mid-term handovers ended in coronation; two went to a genuine ballot. The pattern is split, and 16 July decides which side of it this handover falls.
Five times in the last fifty years a British prime minister has resigned mid-term and the governing party chose the successor. The record is split. Three ended with one candidate taking over unopposed. Two went to a full vote.
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