Does the government grant development consent for Jackdaw by 30 Sep 2026?

All four of the last four early revolts against first-term Labour governments since 1997 ended with the government carrying its policy through the initial confrontation. In three of the four the substance was later softened or reversed: the 10p losers were compensated, the welfare bill was gutted, the two-child cap was scrapped. The catch for Burnham's rebels is that every one of those delayed wins began with a Commons division. A consent signed by the energy secretary offers no division to lose. The full record is the same four revolts, 1997 to 2025.