History. 1 of 6: Johnson told MPs on 15 December 2021 that the levelling up paper would come in the new year. None found from the other prime ministers themselves before 31 December; in 2017 it was Theresa May's ministers who named a later date.
Hunch. On 5 November Andy Burnham himself spoke openly about the new year, though he has not yet said it without a condition.
The statement market resolves YES if between 6 November and the end of 17 December 2026 Andy Burnham in his own words, or a No 10 statement on GOV.UK in his name, says without condition that the plan comes in 2027 or in the new year, or names a date in 2027; words such as 'may', a spokesperson and unnamed aides do not count. It is judged on Hansard and GOV.UK, words outside Parliament need both BBC News and The Guardian, and if the plan is published first the market is NO.
We looked for cases where a UK prime minister promised a major government document and said it would come by the end of the year. We found six, from 2012 to 2021. Three came out in time. In the other three nothing was out by 31 December.