History. 4 of 4: Arkansas 2026 (1 day before the start), California 2024 (part only, 1 day before), Utah 2024 (21 days before), California 2023 (287 days before). With seven other state laws on age checks, parents' consent or a state warning, courts paused 10 of 11 before the start or on the first day (Mississippi on the day).
Hunch. On 5 August 2026 a federal judge refused to pause California's earlier feed law for these same three companies, ruling they had not shown their feeds are their own speech.
The first market resolves YES if by 23:59 California time on 31 December 2026 a federal court orders that at least one part of Assembly Bill 1709 may not be enforced against at least one of Google with YouTube, Meta or TikTok, through a temporary order, a preliminary injunction or a short pause of the whole law, and the order still stands on 1 January, while no such order or an order dated after 31 December counts as NO, and a state promise not to enforce makes the market void if no court pauses anything, even when a court only records that promise in an order. It is judged on the court orders in the three lawsuits, read through PACER or the CourtListener copy, with Reuters and The Guardian as backup.
We looked for cases where a group of tech companies asked a US federal court to pause a state law on how online services work for children, at least 14 days before the law started. We found four since 2022, in California, Utah and Arkansas. Each time we checked whether the court paused at least part of the law before its first day.