History. No count from the four: in the 2023 California and 2024 Utah laws there was no separate ban on personal feeds; California 2024 left the feed rules in force, Arkansas 2026 paused rules on recommended content.
Hunch. On 5 August 2026 a judge ruled that Meta, TikTok and YouTube had not shown their personalised feeds are protected speech.
The feeds market resolves YES if by 23:59 California time on 31 December 2026 a federal court orders that the ban on personalised feeds for children under 16 may not be enforced against at least one of the three companies, and the order still stands on 1 January, while a pause of only autoplay, account deletion or other parts, or an order dated after 31 December, counts as NO, a pause of the whole law counts as YES, and a state promise with no court ruling makes the market void, even when a court only records it in an order. It is judged on the same court orders as the first market, with Reuters and The Guardian as backup.
We looked for cases where a group of tech companies asked a US federal court to pause a state law on how online services work for children, at least 14 days before the law started. We found four since 2022, in California, Utah and Arkansas. Each time we checked whether the court paused at least part of the law before its first day.