Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market05 Nov 2026

Will California agree to hold off enforcing the feed law by 31 Dec?

BinaryResolves 31 Dec 2026
Hunch14%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. No count: in none of the four did the state agree to hold off. It happened with two other laws, in Florida (HB 3) and Louisiana (SB 162).

Hunch. On 5 November Rob Bonta's office said it will defend the law, and Google says he refused to hold off the earlier feed law while YouTube appealed.

How this resolves

The hold-off market resolves YES if by 23:59 California time on 31 December 2026 the attorney general agrees in a court filing, or a court records his agreement, including in its own order, not to enforce all or part of the law against at least one of the three companies, or his office says in public that it will not enforce it against one of them from 1 January. It is judged on the court records in the three lawsuits, read through PACER or the CourtListener copy, with Reuters and The Guardian as backup.

The pattern behind it

4 of 4
Four of four times a tech industry group asked a US court to pause a state law on how apps work for children, the court paused at least part of it before its first day, and none started in full.

We looked for cases where a group of tech companies asked a US federal court to pause a state law on how online services work for children, at least 14 days before the law started. We found four since 2022, in California, Utah and Arkansas. Each time we checked whether the court paused at least part of the law before its first day.