Will the UK confirm a ban on unlicensed gambling sponsors by 2 Dec?
BinaryResolves 2 Dec 2026
History33%
Hunch42%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolves 2 Dec 2026
Why these numbers
History. 2 of 6. David Cameron promised a new crime 8 days after the Panama Papers, and EU leaders called for a law 43 days after LuxLeaks. In the other four, nothing new came within 10 weeks.
Hunch.
For: Guidance says responses should come within 12 weeks of a consultation closing, which is 2 December (GOV.UK, consultation principles).
For: The preferred start of the ban is a fixed date in August 2027, before the football season (GOV.UK consultation, 15 Jul 2026).
For: The gambling minister has told firms the government plans the ban next year (The Guardian, 8 Sep 2026).
Against: The Premier League is lobbying against a ban (The Guardian, 8 Sep 2026).
Against: In the 2020 and 2021 cases, where the government already had a plan before the leak, nothing new came within 10 weeks.
How this resolves
The promise market resolves on the consultation page and the news pages of GOV.UK: YES if between 26 September and 2 December 2026 the government publishes its response confirming a ban on sponsorship or advertising by gambling firms without a UK licence, or a minister confirms it in a statement to Parliament. A response that drops or delays the decision resolves NO, and BBC News and The Guardian are the backup.
The pattern behind it
2 of 6
In 2 of 6 cases the government or leaders who could act made a new formal promise within 10 weeks of the leak. In five a law or agreement followed, after 5 to 37 months.
We looked for cases where a leak or a press investigation showed something the responsible regulator could not stop on its own, while a government or lawmakers had the power to act. We found six cases since 2014, from LuxLeaks to the Pandora Papers. None is about gambling; all are about hidden money, where the same gap between regulator and lawmaker applies. In five, a law or agreement followed.
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