Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market15 Sep 2026

Does the church bill reach committee stage by 14 December?

BinaryResolves 14 Dec 2026
History84%
Hunch80%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 14 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. September first readings cleared committee 28 times out of 28, so the recess is not the drag it looks like, and this sits below the 84 per cent base only because it is a one-clause repeal outside the King's Speech programme with no second reading date set.

How this resolves

This market resolves on the bill's page at bills.parliament.uk/bills/4296, which lists every stage with its sitting dates and updates on the evening of each sitting day. It resolves YES if a Commons committee stage or Committee of the whole House sitting is recorded on or before 14 December 2026. If the page is unavailable, the same stage records at bills-api.parliament.uk/api/v1/Bills/4296/Stages and Hansard settle it.

The pattern behind it

323 of 385
323 of 385 government bills reached a Commons committee stage within ninety days of first reading, 84 per cent. The median was 34 days. The misses are bills that stall between readings, like the Armed Forces Bill at 138 days.

Most government bills reach committee within ninety days. We looked at every government bill brought into the House of Commons, using Parliament's own bills record. We checked whether each reached committee stage, when MPs go through a bill line by line, within ninety days of its first reading. Bills whose ninety days are still running are left out. Below are the ten most recent, newest first.