Hunch. The 88 per cent base is mostly programme bills carried over from a King's Speech, and this is a late one-clause addition with no second reading date announced when the House rose, which is the whole of the discount.
This market resolves on the same page at bills.parliament.uk/bills/4296. It resolves YES if a Commons second reading sitting is recorded on or before 6 November 2026. A second reading committee counts; a first reading or a programme motion alone does not. If the page is unavailable, the Bills API stage records and Hansard settle it.
Most government bills reach committee within ninety days. We looked at every government bill brought into the House of Commons, using Parliament's own bills record. We checked whether each reached committee stage, when MPs go through a bill line by line, within ninety days of its first reading. Bills whose ninety days are still running are left out. Below are the ten most recent, newest first.