Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market15 Aug 2026

Does the Competition and Markets Authority publish its decision on Apple app steering by 31 Oct?

BinaryResolves 31 Oct 2026
Hunch60%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

The CMA published no decision on Apple app steering by 31 October 2026: the Apple mobile platform case page was last updated on 20 October with a consultation on NFC access, not steering.

Resolved 31 Oct 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on the CMA case page at gov.uk/cma-cases/apples-mobile-platform, which records each step with its date on the day of publication. YES if a decision on the steering conduct requirement, whether imposing it, declining to impose it or accepting commitments in its place, is published there with a date on or before 31 October 2026. Publication of further responses, a call for evidence or an updated timetable does not count. If that source has not published in time, Reuters and the Financial Times settle it.

The pattern behind it

Too few cases
Four of the five decisions the CMA has taken after publishing consultation responses under the Act came within 78 days: 41, 41 and 50 days for the designations and 77 for the first search conduct requirement. The fifth, the fair ranking and data portability requirements, took 91. Five observations are one short of the six Hunch needs to show History, and two of them are one decision issued twice.

Five decisions qualify, one short of the six we need to show History. We looked at every finished step in the CMA's three big tech cases, Apple's phones, Google's phones and Google search. For each we counted the days from the CMA publishing the replies to a consultation to publishing its decision, as recorded on the three case pages on 15 August 2026. Where one consultation led to decisions on two dates, each counts. The test is the one the first market asks: did the decision come within 78 days? The step from opening an investigation to proposing a designation is left out, because the law gives it nine months.