Will the college sports bill become law before this Congress ends?
BinaryResolves 15 Jan 2027
History26%
Hunch31%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolves 15 Jan 2027
Why these numbers
History. 8 of 31 such bills became law before the Congress ended, all in a House session after the election.
Hunch.
For: The House sits from 9 November to 17 December (House calendar 2026); with a session after the election the record is 8 of 18.
For: Cruz said President Trump is eager to sign the bill (ESPN, 29 Sep 2026).
For: Government funding runs out in December, so a year-end funding bill could carry the text, as in 2000 (The Guardian, 8 Aug 2026).
Against: The House failed several times over the last year to bring its own version to a vote (The Guardian, 29 Sep 2026).
Against: Whether players are employees is a significant hurdle in the House, and the Congressional Black Caucus opposes the bill (ESPN and The Guardian, 29 Sep 2026).
Against: Speaker Johnson's office did not comment (ESPN, 29 Sep 2026).
How this resolves
The law market resolves on congress.gov: YES if a public law of the 119th Congress, passed by both houses before noon on 3 January 2027 and signed by 15 January 2027, contains the Protect College Sports Act, either S. 4668 itself or its main rules on player pay and transfers inside another bill. A veto, a pocket veto or passage by one house only is NO.
The pattern behind it
8 of 31
8 of 31 bills the Senate passed by a large cross-party vote between 1 September and election day, with no House vote yet, became law before that Congress ended.
We looked for cases where the US Senate passed a bill between 1 September and election day, by at least two votes to one and with most members of both parties in favour, while the House had not passed it or its own version before the election. We found 31, from 1970 to 2000. Eight became law before that Congress ended. Below are the eight laws and two bills that died.
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