Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market21 Jun 2026

Is Abelardo de la Espriella sworn in as president on 7 August?

BinaryResolves 7 Aug 2026
History4 of 4
Hunch94%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

De la Espriella took the presidential oath in Cali on 7 August 2026, per AP reporting of the inauguration.

Resolved 7 Aug 2026
How this resolves

The swearing-in market resolves YES only if de la Espriella takes the presidential oath before Congress on 7 August 2026, per the Congress of Colombia's official record and the state broadcast of the ceremony.

The pattern behind it

4 of 4
In 4 of 4 razor-thin Latin American runoffs since 1994, the declared winner was inaugurated on the constitutional date — through non-concessions, fraud claims, recounts and street protests.

In every close runoff we found, the winner took office on time. We looked for Latin American presidential runoffs since 1994 that were won by a very small margin, and found four. Whatever the losing side claimed, the declared winner took office on the date set by the constitution. One of the four, Mexico in 2006, was a single round of voting rather than a runoff.