Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market21 Jun 2026

Does Gustavo Petro attend the inauguration on 7 August?

BinaryResolves 7 Aug 2026
Hunch63%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Petro did not attend the 7 August ceremony in Cali, which he had publicly opposed; he is absent from the inauguration's attendance records.

Resolved 7 Aug 2026
How this resolves

The Petro attendance market resolves on his physical presence at the inauguration ceremony, per official ceremony records and the live state broadcast.

The pattern behind it

4 of 4
In 4 of 4 razor-thin Latin American runoffs since 1994, the declared winner was inaugurated on the constitutional date — through non-concessions, fraud claims, recounts and street protests.

In every close runoff we found, the winner took office on time. We looked for Latin American presidential runoffs since 1994 that were won by a very small margin, and found four. Whatever the losing side claimed, the declared winner took office on the date set by the constitution. One of the four, Mexico in 2006, was a single round of voting rather than a runoff.