Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market21 Jun 2026

Will the electoral council's official declaration put de la Espriella's winning margin below one percentage point?

BinaryResolves 24 Jun 2026
Hunch68%
Your forecast
  • Yes
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Resolved
Resolved: YES

The official count matched 99.997% of the preliminary tally, leaving a margin of 0.96 points and 250,830 votes, as reported by Al Jazeera on 22 June 2026.

Resolved 24 Jun 2026
How this resolves

The margin market resolves on the National Electoral Council's official declaration of results.

The pattern behind it

4 of 4
In 4 of 4 razor-thin Latin American runoffs since 1994, the declared winner was inaugurated on the constitutional date — through non-concessions, fraud claims, recounts and street protests.

In every close runoff we found, the winner took office on time. We looked for Latin American presidential runoffs since 1994 that were won by a very small margin, and found four. Whatever the losing side claimed, the declared winner took office on the date set by the constitution. One of the four, Mexico in 2006, was a single round of voting rather than a runoff.