History. None of the last five new presidents raised his first minimum wage more than four points above inflation. The rises ran from 0.69 points below inflation to 2.88 points above.
Hunch. In July finance minister Miguel Gómez Martínez said the wage cannot again rise four or five times faster than inflation, while El Tiempo notes that 2027 is an election year.
The inflation market resolves when both figures are out, by 15 February 2027: YES if the 2027 minimum wage rise, worked out from the peso amounts of the first government decree, is more than 4.00 points above the yearly inflation for December 2026 first published by Colombia's statistics office, DANE. Later changes to the decree and later revisions of inflation do not count, and El Tiempo, El Espectador and Reuters settle it if the decree and DANE pages cannot be read.
We looked for cases where a new Colombian president set a first minimum wage through the same commission of unions, business and government. We found five such years since 1998, one for each change of president. In three of them the government set the wage alone, and in two the sides agreed. (Government of Colombia; Government of Colombia; Government of Colombia; Ministry of Labour of Colombia; Government of Colombia)