History. Once in five first wages of new presidents, the sides agreed by 15 December. Four times the first deadline passed with no deal.
Hunch. On 8 November El Tiempo wrote in its editorial that a deal looked unlikely, with business offering about 9% and unions asking for 38.5%.
The 15 December market resolves on statements of Colombia's Ministry of Labour and on the wage decree: YES if the commission of unions, business and government agrees the 2027 minimum wage by the end of 15 December, Bogotá time, even if only most of the unions sign. A deal reached after 15 December is NO, and El Tiempo, El Espectador and Reuters settle it if the ministry pages cannot be read.
We looked for cases where a new Colombian president set a first minimum wage through the same commission of unions, business and government. We found five such years since 1998, one for each change of president. In three of them the government set the wage alone, and in two the sides agreed. (Government of Colombia; Government of Colombia; Government of Colombia; Ministry of Labour of Colombia; Government of Colombia)