History. Three of five times, a new president's first minimum wage was set by the government alone, with no deal. Twice the sides agreed, once in a second round.
Hunch. On 8 November El Tiempo wrote in its editorial that the government will most likely set the wage by decree, because business and unions are still far apart.
The no-deal market resolves on the 2027 wage decree and Ministry of Labour statements: YES if by the end of 30 December the commission has not agreed, in the first or the second round, and the government sets the wage alone. A deal signed by most members of each side is NO, a decree after 30 December without a deal is still YES, and El Tiempo, El Espectador and Reuters are the backups.
We looked for cases where a new Colombian president set a first minimum wage through the same commission of unions, business and government. We found five such years since 1998, one for each change of president. In three of them the government set the wage alone, and in two the sides agreed. (Government of Colombia; Government of Colombia; Government of Colombia; Ministry of Labour of Colombia; Government of Colombia)