Hunch. Only the government can bring Congress back after 16 December, and it says the law must pass this year or Colombia faces default.
The 31 December market resolves YES if the same votes, in a regular or an extra session, are all done by 23:59 on 31 December 2026, Bogotá time, as shown on the websites of the two houses. A withdrawn or shelved law is NO, the president's signature is not needed, and El Espectador and El País decide if the official pages are silent.
We looked for cases where Colombia's government sent Congress a law to raise new taxes under the 1991 constitution, while the president's parties were not in a minority and had not agreed the law with other parties in advance. We found five such laws from 2016 to 2025. One passed both houses before the session ended on 16 December. Three passed from three days to more than a week later, and one was rejected in a Senate committee.