History. 1 of 5: only in the August 2008 figure did core prices come out 0.1 points below the month before, on the first published figure.
Hunch. The Cleveland Fed's own early estimate on 30 October put October core PCE at 0.26%, right on the line between 0.2% and 0.3%.
The 0.2% market resolves on the BEA report on personal income and outlays for October, due on 25 November 2026 at 8:30 am Eastern time: YES if core prices, without food and energy, rose exactly 0.2% from September, and NO at any other figure, with later revisions not counting. If the report is late, the market waits for the next scheduled report on 23 December, and if there is still no figure, September's 0.3% decides, which means NO.
We looked for cases where the BEA reported the same core price rise two months in a row, while energy prices jumped and core prices were up more than 2% over a year. We found five such months since 2000, out of 315 monthly reports. Three came in 2007 and 2008, and two in 2022. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; US Bureau of Economic Analysis)