History. 4 of 5: the next figure was no lower than the month before; with September at 0.3% that means 0.3% or higher. Only August 2008 came in lower.
Hunch. The Cleveland Fed's own early estimate on 30 October put October core PCE at 0.26%, so 0.3% or more is only a little better than even.
The 0.3% market resolves on the same report: YES if October core PCE is 0.3% or higher, and NO at 0.2% or lower, with later revisions not counting. If the report is not out by the next scheduled date, the market is cancelled, and The Guardian and Reuters reports settle it if the BEA page cannot be opened.
We looked for cases where the BEA reported the same core price rise two months in a row, while energy prices jumped and core prices were up more than 2% over a year. We found five such months since 2000, out of 315 monthly reports. Three came in 2007 and 2008, and two in 2022. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; US Bureau of Economic Analysis)