The Home Office weekly summary records 625 migrants arriving in 8 boats in the week ending 6 September 2026 (gov.uk, weekly summary of small boat arrivals and preventions, updated 13 September 2026); the Home Office daily series shows all 625 arrivals and 8 boats on 6 September 2026 with no arrivals on the other days of that week (gov.uk, small boat arrivals last 7 days), and the independent tracker deported.co.uk shows 768 arrivals in 10 boats for 6 to 12 September, consistent with 625 on 6 September plus 143 on 7 September.
The market resolves on the weekly summary table on the same gov.uk page; YES if the migrants arrived figure against the week ending 6 September 2026 is greater than 500. The published figure at the time of resolution governs. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and PA Media settle it.
Ministers put a number on a fall four times since 2023. We looked for times when the Prime Minister or a Home Office minister said by how much small boat arrivals had fallen on the year before. The record starts in 2023, the first year arrivals fell. For each claim we checked the next thirty days in the Home Office daily figures. We asked whether arrivals were below the same thirty days a year earlier by at least the share claimed.