Home Office figures published on 18 September 2026 show 143 people arrived in 2 boats in the week ending 13 September, down from 625 in the week before.
The market resolves on the same table, row for the week ending 13 September 2026, greater than 500; if the row is not published by 18 September, resolution waits for the first edition that contains it. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and PA Media settle it.
Ministers put a number on a fall four times since 2023. We looked for times when the Prime Minister or a Home Office minister said by how much small boat arrivals had fallen on the year before. The record starts in 2023, the first year arrivals fell. For each claim we checked the next thirty days in the Home Office daily figures. We asked whether arrivals were below the same thirty days a year earlier by at least the share claimed.