The Home Office daily series shows 2,683 small boat arrivals from 2 to 30 September 2026 (2,096 to 24 September in the 25 September time series, plus 587 in the last-seven-days page), already above 2,610 before 1 October is added.
The market resolves on the Home Office daily series at gov.uk under Migrants detected crossing the English Channel in small boats, in the weekly time series edition published on Friday 2 October 2026, summing the migrants arrived column from 2 September to 1 October 2026; YES if the sum is 2,610 or fewer, NO at 2,611 or more. The 2025 comparator is 5,222 from the 4 September 2026 edition. If the Friday edition is delayed, the daily last-seven-days page covering 1 October governs. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and PA Media reports of the monthly figure settle it.
Ministers put a number on a fall four times since 2023. We looked for times when the Prime Minister or a Home Office minister said by how much small boat arrivals had fallen on the year before. The record starts in 2023, the first year arrivals fell. For each claim we checked the next thirty days in the Home Office daily figures. We asked whether arrivals were below the same thirty days a year earlier by at least the share claimed.