Does August 2026 borrowing exceed the £14.9bn recorded for August 2025?
BinaryResolves 22 Sep 2026
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Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: YES
ONS public sector finances, 22 September 2026: August 2026 borrowing was £18.3bn, £2.9bn more than in August 2025 and above £14.9bn.
Resolved 22 Sep 2026
How this resolves
The market resolves on public sector net borrowing excluding banks for August 2026 as first published in the same bulletin (series J5II), compared with the £14.9bn for August 2025 as it stands in that bulletin; YES if higher. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and the Financial Times settle it.
The pattern behind it
4 of 8
Four of the last eight falls from a series high were reversed by a new high the following month: July 2022, January 2023, September 2024 and October 2025. The other four, July 2023, January 2024, December 2024 and December 2025, were followed by a lower or still-below-record month. Across the continuous ONS series since March 1993 the stock has fallen from a record 62 times and the following month set a new record in 22. July and January dominate the list because self-assessment receipts arrive in those months; the record shows the dip is usually made back within two months rather than one.
UK public debt has fallen from a record 62 times since 1993. We used the official monthly ONS figures and took every month when debt fell from its highest level so far, as it did this July. Then we checked whether the next month set a new record. It did in 22 of the 62, and in four of the last eight. The eight most recent are shown below.
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