No No 10, Treasury or MoD statement committing to defence spending above 2.68% of GDP appeared on gov.uk by 10 August 2026.
The spending-commitment market resolves on an official HM Government statement — No 10, HM Treasury or the Ministry of Defence — explicitly committing to a defence spending trajectory above 2.68% of GDP; reporting of intentions does not count. GDP-share figures are taken as stated by HM Treasury / MoD in the published document or ministerial statement to Parliament (Hansard).
In four cases over seventy years, no settlement was reversed. We looked for British ministers who left office over a defence or spending settlement. Each time the resignation made the front pages and the number stayed. Keith Speed in 1981 was sacked rather than resigning. Michael Heseltine in 1986 left over a dispute about defence buying, with no spending number to reverse.