What happens to the Defence Investment Plan by 10 August?
Multiple choiceResolves 10 Aug 2026
Hunch
Still unpublished47%
Published with a higher settlement34%
Published at 2.68% as settled19%
Your forecast
Still unpublished
Published with a higher settlement
Published at 2.68% as settled
Resolved
Resolved: Still unpublished
The MoD's gov.uk publication record showed no Defence Investment Plan published by 10 August 2026.
Resolved 10 Aug 2026
How this resolves
The Defence Investment Plan market resolves on whether the MoD has formally published the plan by 10 August 2026, and at what stated GDP share, per the gov.uk publication record.
The pattern behind it
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In four comparable resignations over defence and spending settlements, zero produced a near-term reversal of the number. The one partial reversal (1982) took a war. Against that: none of those resignations brought down a prime minister within eleven days.
In four cases over seventy years, no settlement was reversed. We looked for British ministers who left office over a defence or spending settlement. Each time the resignation made the front pages and the number stayed. Keith Speed in 1981 was sacked rather than resigning. Michael Heseltine in 1986 left over a dispute about defence buying, with no spending number to reverse.
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