Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market20 Sep 2026

Will the US ask the Supreme Court to pause the ruling by 5 Oct?

BinaryResolves 5 Oct 2026
History55%
Hunch25%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

On 24 September 2026 the Department of Homeland Security filed application 26A406 asking the Supreme Court to stay the ruling in D.V.D. after the First Circuit decision in No. 26-1212, and the Court granted the stay on 29 September, according to the Supreme Court docket and Al Jazeera.

Resolved 24 Sep 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. Every filing in this record that came inside a fortnight followed a refusal to pause an order already in force, while the Boston judgment does not bite until the First Circuit issues its mandate, which its own rules put in November.

How this resolves

Resolves on the Supreme Court docket at supremecourt.gov: YES if, between 20 September and 5 October 2026, the docket lists an application by the Department of Homeland Security or the solicitor general to stay or vacate the First Circuit judgment of 18 September 2026 in D.V.D. v. Department of Homeland Security. A petition for certiorari, a rehearing petition filed in the First Circuit, or a filing in any other case resolves NO, and if the docket page cannot be opened that day, reports in two of Reuters, the BBC and the Guardian settle it.

The pattern behind it

7 of 11
Seven of the eleven losses brought an emergency application: day 2, day 3, day 5, day 6, day 11, day 13, then day 21. Nothing in the record was filed after day 21, and the four that produced nothing have now run 32, 51, 144 and 148 days.

We looked at every ruling since 20 January 2025 where a US appeals court went against the Trump government on an immigration policy and kept it blocked for the whole country or a whole group. Did the government then ask the Supreme Court for an emergency pause? We found eleven rulings. One office decides every one of these requests, so the eleven are not fully separate. The two detention rulings came from one policy and one choice, so they count as one. Newest first.