Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market29 Jun 2026

Will resident doctors vote to accept the government's June offer?

BinaryResolves 29 Jun 2026
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

Members voted 53% in favour on a 57% turnout; the BMA resident doctors committee ended the dispute the same day.

Resolved 29 Jun 2026
How this resolves

The referendum market resolved on the BMA result announced 29 June 2026 on bma.org.uk.

The pattern behind it

1 of 5
1 of the last 5 major NHS pay settlements was followed by new strike dates within twelve months. The caveat: that one was the most recent, in 2024, involving these same doctors.

We looked at the major NHS pay disputes of the past ten years. Each one ended with a deal, or with a contract the government forced on staff. What changed from case to case was how long the calm lasted. The gap before the next fight ran from under twelve months to six years.