The index broke below 97 in late January and touched 95.5, its lowest since February 2022.
The first-quarter market resolves YES if the DXY trades below 96 at any point between 1 January and 31 March 2026, on prints published by ICE.
Since 1985 the dollar has lost about 9% or more in a year five times. We used the dollar index. We checked what happened in the following year. In three cases the fall went on, and in two the dollar bounced back. History is close to split.