Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market02 Jul 2026

Will the S&P 500 set a new record close (above 7,599.96) by 7 August?

BinaryResolves 7 Aug 2026
History4 of 5
Hunch47%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

The S&P 500 closed at 7,600.50 on 3 August, edging past the 2 June record of 7,599.96, then ran to 7,757.64 by 7 August (S&P Dow Jones Indices data).

Resolved 3 Aug 2026
How this resolves

The record-close market resolves on official S&P Dow Jones Indices closing values published at spglobal.com and reported by Reuters; a record close means a closing value above the prior all-time closing high of 7,599.96 set on 2 June 2026, and if 7 August is not a trading day the prior session's close applies.

The pattern behind it

4 of 5
In four of five years with a record-heavy first half, the index ended the year higher than at midyear. The fifth was 1987 — which also featured a new Fed chair tightening into a weak dollar.

Since 1987, five years began with a long run of S&P 500 records. We checked whether the index ended each of those years higher than it stood at midyear. Four did. The exception was 1987, the year of the Black Monday crash.