Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market13 Sep 2026

Does the UK announce new Russia sanctions or Ukraine aid by 27 Sep?

BinaryResolves 27 Sep 2026
History88%
Hunch72%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Between 13 and 27 September 2026 gov.uk published no new Russia sanctions designations (the only change to the Russia list was one revocation on 21 September) and no new Ukraine aid package; the 25 September MOD release on Ukrainian drone data is a UK industry competition, and the Patriot, drone and PURL package was announced on 8-9 September, before the window.

Resolved 27 Sep 2026
How this resolves

The market resolves on gov.uk, which publishes Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence press releases on the day of announcement: YES if a release dated 13 to 27 September 2026 announces new designations under the Russia sanctions regime or a new package of military equipment or funding for Ukraine; scheduled payments under loans agreed before 13 September, restatements of the 8 September winter package and statements to the OSCE or UN do not count. If gov.uk has not published, BBC and Reuters reports settle it, and silence on all three by 23:59 BST on 27 September resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

7 of 8
Seven of the last eight strikes of this kind led to new UK sanctions or a new military aid package within 14 days. Only Sumy in April 2025 did not. With the Yavoriv strike of March 2022 it is eight of nine.

We looked at Russian strikes since 2022 that landed on or next to a Western delegation, a building of a Western country, or NATO territory. We found nine. For each we checked gov.uk to see whether the UK announced new sanctions on Russia or new military aid for Ukraine within 14 days. The eight most recent are shown here, newest first.